April 2015

The Colbert Real Estate Report

Monthly Market Update for April 2015

Jackson Hole, WY

Summary Mar 2015:

  • 33 :: Total residential sale transactions (down slightly from Feb’s 35)
  • $52,000,000 :: Total residential sales volume reported to MLS (up slightly from last month)
  • $1,570,000::  Average sales price of reported sales (identical to last month)
  • 95% ::  Ratio of sales price to list price (up slightly from last month)
  • 239 ::  Average days on market prior to selling (up slightly from last month’s 243)
  • 48 :: Number of new listings in March
  • $1,240,000 :: Average list price of new listings
  • 15 :: Number of those new listings currently under contract or already sold

What it means:  The month of March echoed the trends/statistics we saw in February. Sales Volume remained close to $50 million (the highest levels we’ve seen in 2015) and sale transactions hovered near 30. We continue to see a lower amount of sale transactions as a result of extremely low inventory levels. Despite limited sale transactions however, the average sales price remained near $1.5 million, due to several high end sales in March (see What Sold below). The average sales price has been increasing, month over month, since November 2014 (see chart below). Sale price to list price and average days on market in March remained close to February numbers.

NEW THIS MONTH: Every month going forward, I will be monitoring new residential listings, the average list prices of those listings and tracking how many of them go under contract (or sell) within the month. These benchmarks should help keep an eye on inventory levels and can help us understand the relationship between new inventory (new supply) and sales prices. See the Market Focus section below for an in-depth analysis of past patterns of new listings/inventory levels in Teton County.

transactions

sales vol

sales price

 

What Sold in Mar 2015? 

  • 30% :: Percentage of single family home sales (similar to last month’s 29%)
  • 37% :: Percentage of condo/townhome sales (identical to last month)
  • 33% :: Percentage of Land Sales (high again for a second straight month)
  • 40% :: Percentage of residential properties selling for over $1 million (down from 54% last month)
  • 60% :: Percentage of residential properties selling for under $1 million (up from 46% last month)
  • 30% :: Percentage of residential properties selling for under $500,000 (up from 23% last month)

What it means: The breakdown of property types in March was also nearly identical the breakdown we saw in February. Land sales remained higher than average for the second straight month. While land sales usually represent about 20% of all sales on average, in February and March 2015 there were 12 and 11 sales accounting for 34% and 33% of all sales (see chart below). This trend could be explained by the lack of available built-out inventory (i.e. single family homes and townhomes). As buyers are unable to find what they are looking for (or what they like is overpriced), many are considering purchasing land and building their own home.  The percentage of properties selling for over $1 million dropped down to 40% after a high of 54% in February. The number of properties selling for under $500,000 increased after 4 months of decline (see chart below). That being said, the average sales price remained high ($1.57 million) due to several high end sales including a 6,000 square foot house in Teton Pines (selling close to $8 million) a 48 acre tract of land in Crescent H (selling around $5 million) and a 6 bedroom estate in Shooting Star, at the base of Jackson Hole Mountain Resort, which sold for north of $10 million (pictured below).

land sales

sales under 500k

Shooting Star

6 bedroom estate in Shooting Star

Market Focus

marketfocus

Inventory Levels: Then and Now

Teton County sees historically low inventory levels as we enter the busy spring/summer listing season

As my colleague David Viehman noted in his year end Jackson Hole Report (and I summarized in a previous analysis), current inventory levels are at or near their lowest levels in 25 years. At the end of 2014…..

  • Overall available inventory in Teton County was down 15% from 2013, and is now at the second lowest level in 25 years
  • Single family home inventory was the lowest in 25 years
  • Condo/Townhome inventory was down 23% compared to year end 2013, marking the 3rd lowest condo inventory in the past 25 years
  • Available land inventory was down 12% compared to year end 2013

I went back over the past year and determined the number of new listings (residential property in Teton County) to hit the MLS each month. Typically spring and early summer see the most new listings, which was the case in 2014 when there were 228 new listings in the months of May and June last year. Since the start of the new year we’ve seen a total of only 141 new listings. After 6 months of limited new inventory, listing activity picked up in March with 59 new listings. It will be interesting to see if March’s increase continues into our spring/early summer listing season. How much new inventory will we see in May and June? Will it be at the same levels we saw in 2014? NewListings

It’s also interesting to compare the number of new listings with the sale transactions that occur each month. Last spring/early summer there were almost 4 times as many new listings hitting the market as there were sales each month. Compare that to the Fall months of 2014 (Sept/Oct/Nov) where there was not even enough new inventory to replace the sales that occurred those months. In the past 3 months, we’ve seen slightly more new listings than sales, however historically low inventory levels in the past 6 months are likely contributing to the low transaction levels.

NewVsSold

Interested in keeping an eye on new listings this spring/summer? Would you like to be alerted as soon as a new listing hits the market in a particular location or price range? 

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THANK YOU for voting me Jackson’s BEST Real Estate agent in the JH Weekly’s Readers Poll.

I appreciate your support! This year’s Best of JH edition has a super power theme which allowed me to have some fun with my “thank you” ad in the paper. Wouldn’t a crystal ball be great?!

 BestJH.GoldAd

Katie Colbert, Associate Broker

RE/MAX Obsidian Real Estate, a member of the RE/MAX Global Network

Mobile: 307.699.4137  Office: 307.739.1234

Email: katiecolbert123@gmail.com

2015Gold 

Voted one of Jackson Hole’s Top Real Estate Agents

by JH Weekly Reader’s Poll since 2012

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