The Colbert Real Estate Report
Monthly Market Update for January 2016
Jackson Hole, WY
Summary – Dec 2015:
- 23 :: Total residential sale transactions (2nd lowest in past year)
- $44,525,000 :: Total residential sales volume (another drop)
- $1,935,000:: Average sales price of reported and unreported sales (back up after a dip last month)
- 95% :: Ratio of sales price to list price (slight drop after many consistent months)
- 217 :: Average days on market prior to selling (identical to last month)
What it means: Real estate sale transactions dropped off significantly in December, marking the lowest number of monthly sales since Jan 2015, and perhaps signaling a new trend of slowing real estate activity. Sales volume also declined again, representing the 3rd lowest levels seen in the past year. The average sales price was back up near $2 million, a typical average price over the last several months. The ratio of sale price to listing price dropped slightly to 95% after 7 months at 96%, suggesting that recently buyers are purchasing property at more of a discount (on average). That being said however, 35% of all sales in December sold at, near, or above the listing price, including all 3 sales that occurred under $500,000. Properties selling in December were, on average, on the market slightly longer than sales in the summer months. The 10 acre Forest Service parcel on North Cache finally sold after 910 days on the market (and after falling out of contract with several previous buyers). Conversely there were also several property sales that occurred very quickly in December including a cabin on 3 acres in Red Top Meadows (listed for $489,000) and an Aspens one bedroom condo with a unique floor plan (listed for $405,000). Both properties sold in under 70 days from hitting the market. Well priced and high demand properties continue to sell quickly, however many aggressively priced properties are sitting on the market. Heading into 2016, I anticipate this trend to continue as Buyers continue to be motivated by value and are not ready or willing to pay more than a property is worth (based on the most recent market comps).
What Sold in Dec 2015?
- 48% :: Percentage of single family home sales (similar to last month)
- 17% :: Percentage of condo/townhome sales (lowest in over 2 years)
- 35% :: Percentage of Land Sales (one of highest % in past year)
- 43% :: Percentage of residential properties selling for over $1 million (up from last month)
- 57% :: Percentage of residential properties selling for under $1 million (down from last month)
- 13% :: Percentage of residential properties selling for under $500,000 (lowest in past 2 years)
- 10 :: Commercial Land Sales
What it means: Single family home sales remained near average levels in December, representing nearly 1/2 of all sales in December (12 month average is 47%). On the other hand, there were only 4 condo/townhome sales in December, accounting for less than 20% of sales in Teton County last month. This represents the lowest percentage seen since compiling statistics for this Report in the summer of 2013. Low condo sales could be explained by the low condo inventory levels – currently only 25% of all listings in Teton County are condo or townhomes. Land sales spiked in December, representing 35% of all sales, one of the highest percentages recorded in the past year. Notable land sales in December include two lot sales in 3 Creek Ranch, a 36 acre parcel in Bar-B-Bar Ranch north of Jackson and three land sales south of town in Squaw Creek, Shootin’ Iron Ranch and the Snake River Sporting Club. Property sales under $500,000 took a significant drop in December – there were only 3 sales in December under the half million mark, representing the lowest percentage of sales the past 2 years. This decline is significant as it illustrates the shrinking of the entry level market. Options for first time home buyers and local families are becoming fewer, creating higher demand and resulting in even higher prices for this segment. On the other hand, sales above $1 million increased after a low month in November and represented nearly 1/2 of all sales in Teton County. Separately, there were 10 commercial sales in the month of December in Teton County, as many investors aimed to complete a purchase or sale before the year end. (Although this Report does not track commercial sales, there are usually 1-2 per month.) Notable commercial sales included: two industrial condominiums on Elk Ave (south of town), two Pine Box live/work units in Town (pictured below), two high end office condos in downtown and the sale of the Elk Refuge Inn, which sold for $3.5 million.
What’s new in Dec 2015? (New Listing Analysis)
- 26 :: Total number of new listings in December
- Average List Price: $2,400,000
- 23 new residential properties (single family, condo, townhome)
- Average List Price: $1,833,000
- New listings already under contract or sold: 4
- 3 new building sites
- Average List Price: $1,970,000
- New listings already under contract or sold: 1
What it means: New listings picked up slightly in December, but still remained low. With only 26 new listings, December 2015 marked the second slowest month for new listings in the past year (November 2015 was the lowest with only 18 new listings). While winter is usually a slower time for new inventory, the small up tick in December could be explained by sellers’ motivation to list their properties in time for the holiday rush of visitors and skiers (potential real estate buyers). In particular, 10 of the new listings in December were in Teton Village including a rarely listed 5 bedroom Snow Ridge condo for $1,600,000, which went under contract in early January. The average sales price of new listings increased for the second month in a row, jumping up to nearly $2 million, in part thanks to 2 high end land listings, both with Flat Creek frontage, but in different parts of the Valley. A 35 acre parcel in the Flat Creek Fishing Club Subdivision south of Jackson was listed for $5.65 million and a 1.17 acre lot in Shooting Star at the base of Jackson Hole Mountain Resort was listed for $2.85 million in December (pictured below). As of Jan 10th, just under 20% of these new listings are pending or sold (down from nearly 30% in November), suggesting that many of the new listings prices may be a bit above market. Due to the low sales in December (see Summary section above), new inventory slightly outpaced inventory leaving the market (i.e. sales). While low inventory levels usually contribute to rising values, it’s becoming apparent that buyers are not willing to “buy just to buy” and are holding out for well-priced properties. It will be interesting to see the pricing trends of new inventory hitting the market in 2016, and to see if Sellers are still holding on to 2015 values (which were some of the highest seen since the peak in 2007) or if we will see sale and listing prices leveling off in the New Year. That being said, now may be a great time to sell a property as there is little new inventory coming onto the market at competitive prices. (Please contact me for a free in-depth analysis on the current market value of your property.)
Notable new listings in December include:
- Two bedroom/one bath townhome with garage in Cottonwood Park – $499,000
- Completely re-built 2 bedroom home on the Village Road – $950,000 (pictured below)
- Four bedroom, true ski-in/ski-out home in Teton Village – $9.5 million
Click HERE to view all new December residential listings.
Click HERE to view all new December land listings.
Thank you for a great 2015!
Thank you to all my clients and colleagues for making 2015 a great year in real estate. I was able to help 19 different buyers and sellers (15 shown) purchase or sell property in Teton County this past year.
How can I help you buy or sell a home in 2016?
Katie Colbert Brady, Associate Broker
RE/MAX Obsidian Real Estate, a member of the RE/MAX Global Network
Mobile: 307.699.4137 Office: 307.739.1234
Voted one of Jackson Hole’s Top Real Estate Agents by JH Weekly Reader’s Poll since 2012