Nov 2016

The Colbert Real Estate Report

Monthly Market Update for Nov 2016

Jackson Hole, WY

Summary – Oct 2016:

  • 51 :: Total residential sale transactions (down but still strong)
  • $87,505,000 :: Total residential sales volume (identical to Sept's high)
  • $1,716,000::  Average sales price of reported and unreported sales (continuing upward trend)
  • 97% ::  Ratio of sales price to list price (highest since April 2015)
  • 169 ::  Average days on market prior to selling (down from last month)

What it means: The Jackson Hole real estate market remains robust after a strong October in both property transactions and dollar volume. The high dollar volume seen in September continued into October with nearly $90 million in property sales.  Transactions held strong after a busy summer selling season, charting over 50 sales in the month of October.  While transaction levels have been increasing in the summer of 2016 (when compared to 2015), monthly sales volume has generally lagged behind 2015 (i.e. things are not selling for as much this year). However, over the past two months, the gap seems to be closing, with Oct 2016 posting numbers very similar to Oct 2015 (see charts below). Is this a new trend? Is the 2016 real estate market finally catching up to 2015 numbers? It will be interesting to see if sales remain strong for the remainder of the year - Stay tuned!  The average sales price has been steadily increasing since July, reaching it's highest level in the past 9 months in October. Note that we are still lagging October 2015, which saw an average sales price close to $2 million. After many consistent months (and a slight dip in September) the sale price to list price ratio increased to 97%, as Buyers were paying within 3% of list price for many properties last month. In fact, 11 properties (21.5% of sales) in October sold at, near or over the listing price, including a 4 bedroom home in need of many repairs down in Hoback River Ranches which sold for $50,000 OVER the listing price.  The average number of days a property sits on the market before selling dropped in October, marking the third lowest level seen in the past year. Well priced properties continued to sell quickly in October with 19 sales occurring within 90 days of listing. Many of these quick sales occurred in the sub $1 million market, in neighborhoods like Indian Trails, Cottonwood Park, Rafter J and East Jackson, where quality inventory remains low. It is therefore very important for Buyers to be prepared to act quickly when they see a property that fits their needs. For buyers looking to purchase with financing, it's helpful to start a discussion with a banker ahead of time in order to understand the types of loans available and determine a comfortable price range. (Please connect with me for a list of my preferred local lenders.)   

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What Sold in Oct 2016?

  • 45% :: Percentage of residential properties selling for over $1 million (steady for past few months)
  • 55% :: Percentage of residential properties selling for under $1 million 
  • 12% :: Percentage of residential properties selling for under $500,000 (second month in decline)
  • 53% :: Percentage of single family home sales (back up after low last month)
  • 33% :: Percentage of condo/townhome sales (similar to last month)
  • 14% :: Percentage of Land Sales (down from high last month)

What it means:  Entry level sales dropped again in October, as only 6 properties sold for under $500,000, including a vacant lot in Squaw Creek and a steep vacant lot in Hidden Ranch, that finally sold after more than 4.5 years on the market! Unfortunately, Jackson Hole opportunities for entry level buyers are shrinking as only 1 out of every 8 sales occurred in this price point last month. Currently there are 22 available properties (condos/townhomes/homes) and 14 available lots for buyers looking to stay under the half million mark. Condo and tonwhome sales remained steady in October, accounting for exactly one third of all property sales in Teton County. There were 9 condo/townhome sales under $750,000 in October, all located in the Town of Jackson, including a 2,000 townhome in E Jackson, which received multiple offers and sold for $675,000. On the other end of the spectrum, this month also saw a few high-end condo sales in Town (Pearl at Jackson & Love Ridge) and Teton Village, where a 3,400 sq foot residence at the Four Seasons sold for $5.5 million.  Single family homes sales were back up after a low last month, representing over half of all sales in October. Single family homes priced under $1 million continue to sell quickly, due to high demand and low inventory in this segment. Currently there are only 14 single family homes (with at least 3 bedrooms) for sale in Teton County under $1 million. After increasing since June, and reaching a high last month, land sales took a dive in October, accounting for only 14% of all sales. We should expect land sales in November to continue to be slow, as potential buyers purchasing now would not be able to break ground until next Spring. 

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What’s new in Oct 2016? (New Listing Analysis)

  • 26 :: Total New Listings in Oct
    • New Listing Volume: $27,320,000
    • Average List Price: $1,051,000
  • 20 :: New Residential Properties (single family, townhome, condo)
    • Average List Price: $1,014,000
    • New listings priced under $1 million :: 14 (70%)
    • New listings already under contract or sold: 6
  • 6 :: New Building Sites
    • Average List Price: $1,174,000
    • New listings priced under $1 million :: 5 (83%)
    • New listings already under contract or sold: 0

What it means: New inventory entering the market is dwindling as we enter the "off season" in Jackson Hole, with not quite one new listing hitting the market each day in October. Dollar volume of new listings is also down, with only $27 million worth of property hitting the market in October. Compare that to the peak months of spring/summer, where monthly new listings totaled close to $250 million. The asking prices of new inventory is dropping as well, as more lower priced properties are hitting the market this Fall. Nearly 75% of October's new listings (homes and building sites) were priced under $1 million. In particular, of the 14 homes coming available in this price range in October, five of them (or 35%) are already under contract, including a duplex in the Town of Jackson and two homes in Rafter J. Given the high demand for this price point, well priced quality homes are receiving a good amount of early interest and, in many cases, are snatched up quickly by ready buyers. The fall and winter months are not popular months to list a property as bare trees, brown/muddy yards and variable weather are not ideal for showcasing a home. October 2016 was particularly slow compared to last year when 48 new listings hit the market in October. If this year follows the patterns seen last year, we shouldn't expect the level of new inventory to increase until the Spring (see charts below).   

Notable new listings in Oct include:

  • Two different end unit one bedroom condos in The Aspens - $410,000 & $415,000
  • Fixer-upper 3 bedroom home on the Village Road - $622,000
  • Remodeled home on half acre in downtown Wilson - $1,325,000
  • Two lots in the desirable Gill Addition in the Town of Jackson - $715,000 each

Click HERE to view all available October residential listings.

Click HERE to view all available October land listings.

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