Oct 2015

The Colbert Real Estate Report

Monthly Market Update for Oct 2015

Jackson Hole, WY

Summary – Sept 2015:

  • 53:: Total residential sale transactions (similar to Aug’s high)
  • $100,500,000 :: Total residential sales volume including unreported sale prices
  • $1,900,000::  Average sales price of reported and unreported sales
  • 96% ::  Ratio of sales price to list price (consistent for past 5 months)
  • 155 ::  Average days on market prior to selling (back down after last month’s spike)

What it means:  September real estate sales followed in August’s footsteps, recording a second straight month of robust transaction levels. Additionally, sales volume in September had another strong performance topping $100 million for the second month in a row (including reported and non-reported sales prices – see note below).  As a point of reference, we haven’t seen total sales volume top $100 million since October 2013 and haven’t seen numbers even close to these since last fall (Sept & Oct 2014 had total sales volumes of just over $90 million each). It is typical for the fall months, mainly Sept and Oct, to put up strong numbers as they account for deals that came together during the busy summer selling season (i.e. if you put a property under contract in Aug, you will most likely close in Sept or Oct). I also think the high September sales transaction and volume are also an indication of increasing motivation of sellers as we approach the end of summer. As an illustration, we saw several price reductions last month as many Sellers hope to sell their properties before winter. In conjunction with the higher than usual sales volume, the average sales price (again including both reported and unreported sales) remained much higher than usual at just under $2 million.  The average days a property sits on the market before selling dropped down again after a small increase in August. Properties that are well priced and/or in high demand continue to sell very quickly and close to asking price. In particular, 22 of the sales in September closed within 3 months of being listed. Additionally, nearly 20% of all sales occurring in September closed at or above the listing price.

Note that in previous reports, I separately tracked sales that were reported to the MLS and transactions where the sales price was withheld from the MLS. Lately, there have been several significant sales each month that are not reported to the MLS. Given that these undisclosed sales are a valuable component in tracking the overall market trends, going forward, I will be reporting the COMBINED total sales volume and average sales prices, including those sales reported to the MLS and making an estimate for sale prices not reported to the MLS.

transactions

VolumewithUnreported

AVSP

ADOM

What Sold in Sept 2015? 

  • 58% :: Percentage of single family home sales (up after two low months
  • 25% :: Percentage of condo/townhome sales (down from last two months)
  • 17% :: Percentage of Land Sales (down after a high trend this summer)
  • 57% :: Percentage of residential properties selling for over $1 million (highest % in last 2 years)
  • 43% :: Percentage of residential properties selling for under $1 million (down from last month)
  • 23% :: Percentage of residential properties selling for under $500,000 (up after a low in Aug)

What it means: Single family home sales spiked in September, representing nearly 60% of all sales in Teton County. High sales in this category usually go hand in hand with high sales volume and higher than usual average sales prices, as many of the sales in this price range tend to be single family homes. For example, in September 22 of the 30 sales occurring over $1 million were for stand alone homes (5 were lot sales and 3 were high end condo sales). As a result of higher single family home sales, condo and townhome sales and vacant land sales declined in September. Building lot sales in particular took a downturn after an increasing trend seen throughout the summer months. Sales over $1 million accounted for nearly 60% of all transactions, the highest percentage recorded in the last 2 years! Additionally, in the month of September, nine properties sold in excess of $3 million in neighborhoods like Tucker Ranch, Crescent H, Indian Springs, and 3 Creek Ranch. Two very high end homes sold in Teal Trace (in Wilson and pictured below) and Shooting Star (at the base of Jackson Hole Mountain Resort), both with listing prices north of $11 million. On the other end of the spectrum, sales under $500,000 rebounded to 23% after representing only 14% of all sales (a new low) in August. The overwhelming majority of sales in this price range are for 1-2 bedroom condos in the Town of Jackson. The least expensive single family home in September was for an older, 1,700 sq foot split level home in West Jackson, which sold for $675,000.

Over$1m

breakdown

TealTrace

Sold in Teal Trace in Wilson – listed for $11,500,000

 

What’s new in September 2015? (New Listing Analysis)

  • 60 :: Total number of new listings in Sept (following a downward trend)
    • Average List Price: $1,945,000
  • 50 new residential properties (single family, condo, townhome)
    • Average List Price: $1,690,000
    • New listings already under contract or sold: 14
  • 10 new building sites
    • Average List Price: $2,200,000
    • New listings already under contract or sold: 2

What it means: New listings have been steadily declining since the height of the listing season in June.  In the month of September, properties were being listed at a rate similar to before the busy summer selling season, (however when compared to this time last year, we did see roughly 10 more new listings). As of October 15th, nearly 30% of the new listings were under contract including several that received multiple offers within days of hitting the market.  As the rate of new inventory coming onto the market slowed in September, it came close to matching the monthly sales for September, meaning that every property that sold last month is being replaced by a new listing. For most of the summer the average listing price of these new listings was higher than the average sales price of properties that sold that month. In other words the “replacement” property was coming on line at a much higher price than those properties that were leaving the market, which arguably contributes to an increasing market. That trend changed in August and September as the listing prices of new inventory was roughly in line with sales, suggesting that the market may be slowing a bit (see chart below).

Notable new listings in September include:

  • A duplex in West Jackson: Two 3 bed / 1 bath units with fenced yard and room to build garage $775,000
  • A bank-owned 3,200 square foot home overlooking Town on Budge Drive: $1,195,000 (pictured below)
  • A 37 acre home site in Bar B Bar on the Snake River: $11,900,000

Click HERE to view all new September residential listings.

Click HERE to view all new September land listings.

NewListings

New.v.Sold

AVSP.NewVsSold

BudgeDr

Multi-level bank owned home on Budge Dr overlooking Town $1,195,000

 

Over 40% of property sales last month sold in less than 90 days – Would you like to be notified as soon as a new listing hits the market in a particular location or price range?

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Katie Colbert and Chris Brady wedding in Jackson Hole on Sunday, Sept. 6, 2015.

Katie Colbert Brady, Associate Broker

RE/MAX Obsidian Real Estate, a member of the RE/MAX Global Network

Mobile: 307.699.4137  Office: 307.739.1234

Email: katiecolbert123@gmail.com

2015Gold 

Voted one of Jackson Hole’s Top Real Estate Agents by JH Weekly Reader’s Poll since 2012