Year End Review – 2016

2016 Year in Review: Market Trends and Sale Statistics for the Jackson Hole Real Estate Market

Over the course of 2016, I have tracked many different sale and market statistics which all help paint a picture of the real estate market in Jackson Hole over the past year. Below are some of the take-aways from the Jackson real estate market in 2016, how they compare to the past few years, and a look forward to 2017:

Quick Stats – 2016:

  • Real Estate Transactions: 448 sales
    • 2015 = 466 sales
    • 2014 = 447 sales
  • Sales Volume: $634,247,000
    • 2015 = $743,000,000 
    • 2014 = $568,000,000
  • Average Sales Price: $1,415,730
    • 2015 = $1,590,000
    • 2014 = $1,270,000
  • Average Days on Market: 193 days (6+ months)
    • 2015 = 197 days 
    • 2014 = 267 days

What it means: After an explosive 2015 in the Jackson Hole real estate market, 2016 fell short as both real estate transactions and dollar volume decreased this year. While sale transactions in 2016 were only down 4% compared to 2015, overall sales volume was down 15% compared to last year. Looking back a year further, 2016 transactions levels were actually in line with 2014, however dollar volume has increased almost 12% from 2014 (perhaps a 6% increase after inflation). Many people (most notably sellers) anticipated the gains of 2015 would carry over into 2016. This was not necessarily the case as low inventory levels in 2016 limited sales (albeit putting upward pressure on prices in the meantime). The average sales price in 2016 followed a similar trend, falling short of 2015 levels by 11%, but coming in higher than 2014. In the chart below, you can see how the average selling price fluctuates based on the season each year, with 2015 having particularly high months in August, September and October. Days on market in 2016 was consistent with 2015 as properties took, on average, 6 months to sell. 

Breakdown of Sales by Price Point - Residential: 

When comparing 2016 to the past few years, it is very helpful to break down the sales by price point to determine what pricing trends are present. In 2016, the majority of residential sales (42%) occurred in the $500,000 - $1,000,000 range. This included many entry level single family homes in Rafter J, Cottonwood Park and the Town of Jackson. It also included 2+ bedroom condos in The Aspens and smaller, older condos in Teton Village. (It's becoming clear that the days of buying a single family home for less than $500,000 are over, as only 3 single family homes sold for under $500,000 in 2016 - two in Moran and a small cabin down in Hoback.) The percentage of properties selling for under $300,000, which are mostly 1 bedroom condos in Town, is also shrinking - dropping from 9% in 2014, to 4% in 2015, to just 3% of all property sales in 2016. On the other end of the spectrum, properties selling for over $3 million were down slightly in 2016, after doubling from 2014 to 2015. Properties selling in the $1,000,000 - $3,000,000 million range remained consistent from 2015 to 2016 and represented homes in Wilson and the Town of Jackson, and higher end condos in Teton Village.

Breakdown of Sales by Price Point - Land Sales:

The price point breakdown of vacant land sales shifted upwards from 2015 to 2016, as the majority (45%) of land sales occurred in the $1-3 million price range in 2016. Many of these lot sales occurred in high end neighborhoods like John Dodge, Solitude, Stilson Ranch, etc. Vacant land sales under $500,000 dropped 10% from 2015, as fewer entry level opportunities existed in the market. The least expensive lots sales occurred in Hoback, Squaw Creek and south of Wilson on Fall Creek Road. (Note: Currently there are only 11 lots are available for sale in Teton County under $500,000 and zero lots available under $300,000.) Very high end vacant lot sales ($3+ million), including several lots in Granite Ridge and Shooting Star at the base of Jackson Hole Mountain Resort, dipped in 2016, representing only 9% of all sales (vs. 15% in 2015). 

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